Early Warning/ Conflict Prevention

Background

Central to the prevention of conflicts in Africa is an operational Early Warning System that ensures systematic collection and analysis of information from crisis areas for the purpose of anticipating the escalation of violent conflict, developing strategic responses to these crises and presenting options to actors that are able to make and implement the right decisions. Within the AU framework, the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) is conceived as one of the four key organs of the Peace and Security Council, and as a core mechanism that will support all activities aimed at the prevention, effective management and resolution of conflicts. In other words, the effective functioning of all of the PSC organs depends on that of the CEWS. Consequently, the envisaged system is comprehensive, incorporating mechanisms and procedures to collect, process and utilise early warning information for early action/response, as a basis for preventing escalation of conflict on the continent.

While the importance of early warning for conflict prevention is indisputable, it is only effective if used to develop and undertake early action in response to potential conflicts. Sadly, too many of Africa’s conflicts were indeed foreseen, and could have been prevented through timely and effective action. Thus the African Standby Force (ASF), the Panel of the Wise and other AU and regional mechanisms for early response are critical to the peace and security of the continent, and complementary to the Continental Early Warning System. Building the capacity of African institutions to respond to the first signs of conflict, or to a resumption of hostilities in a post-conflict country, will reduce Africa’s dependence on interventions by international actors, such as the United Nations or the European Union, which are often belated if they are forthcoming at all.

The Panel of the Wise, to be comprised of eminent African personalities with established reputations in the field of peace and security, is quite an innovative tool for early action, which will facilitate the early mediation of disputes that could escalate into violent conflict, or assist in brokering peace agreements where conflict has already erupted.

Activities

Ongoing/Planned Activities

The Assembly of the AU, at its Second Ordinary Session in Maputo on 10-12 July 2003, took a Decision on the Operationalisation of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council (Assembly/AU/Dec.16 (II)), which invites the AU Commission to take the necessary steps to establish the CEWS. SaferAfrica is supporting the AU and Member States in this endeavour by:

Participating in the development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for the collection, analysis, processing and transmission of data for early warning
Participating in the development of an indicators module for the CEWS
Facilitating the non-intelligence components of EW, with particular attention to the role of civil society
Supporting and assisting in the organisation of a governmental experts meeting on early warning in December 2006 to accelerate the operationalisation of the CEWS.

Past Activities

Participated in AU workshop in 2003 on the Operationalisation of the Continental Early Warning System